A recent Des Moines Register Poll shows that Iowans are leaning conservative. This is the state that kicked off the successful campaign for President Obama. Here is how the numbers break out: “Forty-three percent of Iowans consider themselves conservatives, 36 percent say they are moderate, and 17 percent say they are liberal. Fifty percent of Iowans consider themselves fiscal conservatives, while 42 percent say they’re conservatives on social issues such as abortion rights and same-sex marriage.”
A majority of Iowans are conservative
I have long believed that Iowa is a fairly conservative state. I am somewhat surprised however that the majority of Iowans do not consider themselves social conservatives. Overlooking the social issues for a moment, this presents a good picture for the state Republican party in the 2010 elections. But Republicans must overcome the general frustration conservatives have with the party. According to the Des Moines Register “[m]ost current and former Iowa Republicans agree on two reasons why the party has lost elections and voters. It has nominated lackluster candidates, and officeholders have neglected to make spending control a top priority, according to the poll.”
The 2010 elections will see heated contests for 4 of the 5 US House seats, the governor’s office, and many state seats. It is unfortunate that Tom Harkin is not up for re-election for the US Senate until 2014. On the state side, the election season is starting off strong for the gubernatorial race. Recent polls on the gubernatorial race shows the incumbent Democrat governor, Chet Culver, is trailing two different Republican candidates in head to head races. One of the Republican candidates leads Culver by 24 points. The real question is which Republican will be able to come through the primary process strong enough to be succesful next year. Also creating a hurdle for the Republican candidates is a potential independent, Jonathan Narcisse, who believes in small government, is an activist, and is very public. He is moving his battle for Iowa from the Des Moines airwaves, and Des Moines School Board to the entire state with his new initiative An Iowa Worth Fighting For and new debate series with one of the Republican candidates.
There is no telling what the sentiments of Iowans will be in 6 months, but every indication is good that there is a great opportunity for a big resurgence of the Iowa Republican party.
